Naira, Shilling, and Rand Slide Amid Inflation and Policy Shifts

Here’s this week’s overview of the Nigerian Naira, Kenyan Shilling, and South African Rand:

Nigerian Naira

The Nigerian Naira weakened by a further 1.6% against USD last week, extending a run of torrid performance this year. An undershoot in inflation and food inflation was welcome news on Monday, although both overall prices and food prices are still on the rise.

Parallel market trading data showed a clear divergence from the interbank exchange rate during the week, suggesting a lack of liquidity in the market. The two rates did, however, reconverge later in the week. 

Kenyan Shilling

Kenyan Shilling weakened against the dollar last week to trade at 130.25 on Friday. There were no data releases of note last week, with reported importer FX demand weighing on the currency.

South African Rand

South African Rand depreciated against USD last week by 1.95% to trade at 18.20 at close on Friday. Disappointing retail sales data and a dovish tilt by the central bank following their decision to hold rates caused a selloff in the Rand.

Two members of the monetary policy committee voted for a 25 bp rate cut and this, coupled with falling inflation expectations, could boost the likelihood of a rate cut before the year is out.

The SARB expects inflation to average 4.9% this year, down from a 5.1% projection made at the May MPC meeting.