Rand Takes a Hit as SARB Holds Rates Steady Amid Political Uncertainty

South African Rand depreciated against USD last once again week, slipping by 1.5% to 18.7. The South African Reserve Bank unanimously decided to keep its key repo rate at 8.25% on May 30th, 2024, marking the sixth consecutive meeting at post-2009 highs, as widely expected. Inflation fell for the second month to 5.2% in April, from 5.3% in the prior month, but still above the target of 4.5%. Forecasts now indicate that inflation is expected to reach the midpoint of its target range in the second quarter of 2025, sooner than previously predicted, as it was initially expected to occur by the end of next year. The country also went to the polls last week and it is all but confirmed the ANC ruling party is set to lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid rule. The ramifications of a new political outlook remain unclear with citizens hoping new leadership can help revive the struggling economy and address serious social issues. The coalition partners chosen by the ANC, out of options including the pro-business Democratic Alliance and the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters, will be a strong signal of direction, likely to affect the markets significantly.